Downstream Battery Producers Announce Holiday Schedules One After Another, Lead Consumption Performance Remains Overall Satisfactory [SMM Lead Morning Meeting Minutes]

Futures:

Overnight, LME lead opened at $2,000/mt, fluctuating rangebound during the Asian session; entering the European session, LME lead maintained a fluctuating trend with a slightly widened range, hitting a low of $1,997.5/mt and a high of $2,009/mt, finally closing at $2,002.5/mt, up 0.18%.

Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2511 contract opened low at 17,085 yuan/mt. Early in the session, bulls increased positions, pushing the price up to 17,145 yuan/mt. After a slight pullback, it consolidated around the 17,120 yuan/mt level, finally closing at 17,125 yuan/mt, up 0.29%.

On the macro front:

US Treasury Secretary Besant stated that US Fed interest rates have been too high for too long; we will enter an easing cycle. Powell should have signaled 100 to 150 basis points of interest rate cuts. FOMC voting member this year and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee warned against a series of interest rate cuts, expressing continued concerns about inflation and unwillingness to support a rate cut at the next meeting; San Francisco Fed President Daly believed that economic growth and the labor market are slowing down, while inflation is lower than expected, possibly warranting further interest rate cuts. The US released the formal document for the tariff agreement with the EU. The US officially reduced tariffs on EU automobiles to 15%, effective from August 1, 2025.

China's Ministry of Commerce, together with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Ministry of Finance, and seven other departments, issued the "Several Policy Measures on Promoting Service Exports." The Ministry of Commerce and seven other departments jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Vigorously Developing Digital Consumption and Jointly Creating a Better Life in the Digital Age." On September 25, the central bank will conduct a 600 billion yuan MLF operation with a one-year term.

:

SHFE lead remained in the doldrums. Suppliers quoted prices according to market conditions, with some suppliers moving positions for contract rollover. Meanwhile, offers for cargoes self-picked up from production sites in South China increased compared to the previous day. Due to low inventory, quotations remained firm. Mainstream origin quotations against the SMM #1 lead average price were at discounts of 25 yuan/mt to premiums of 80 yuan/mt ex-works. In the secondary lead market, both tax-included and tax-excluded offers coexisted. Secondary refined lead quotations against the SMM #1 lead average price varied from discounts of 150 yuan/mt to parity ex-works. Downstream enterprises, driven by rigid demand, showed a greater preference for purchasing low-priced, tax-excluded cargoes. Furthermore, as downstream enterprises successively completed pre-holiday stockpiling, spot market transactions turned sluggish.

Inventory: On September 24, LME lead inventory decreased by 100 mt to 219,975 mt. As of September 22, the total social inventory of lead ingots across five regions tracked by SMM fell to 54,700 mt, down 12,900 mt from September 18.

Today's lead price forecast:

Inflow of imported lead ingots is expected to increase, coupled with the imminent production resumptions at domestic secondary lead smelters, lead supply may gradually loosen. Additionally, based on the trading performance, downstream battery producers showed limited stockpiling efforts before the holiday, with signs of weakening. As holiday schedules for downstream battery producers were announced, lead ingot consumption capacity during the holiday period was relatively poor, and bulls appeared somewhat disappointed. In summary, lead prices have limited upward momentum, and the strength of support below still requires observation.

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